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  • Civil War 2.0: Is your agency ready?

    I've been seeing more articles about the possibility of civil war breaking out in the U.S. in 2020. At first I was dismissive of the notion but these were written not by kooks living in a bunker in Montana but academic types- sociologists, historians, etc. And the people who study the factors that break apart societies are saying we are on a train heading down the track toward widespread political violence the likes of which haven't been seen here since 1861. The big difference now, of course, is this isn't the era of Springfield muskets and Colt Dragoons. This is the era of AR15s and Glocks. And there are hundreds of millions of them in the hands of our citizenry.

    And last night, POTUS re-tweeted a tweet he liked stating there would be a civil war if he were removed:

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...77539653771264

    https://www.newsweek.com/david-burba...il-war-1462011

    So I never thought I would write the next sentence but here it is: we are one tweet away from POTUS sparking a violent conflict. If he were to fire off an angry call to arms, I truly believe factions would heed it. I know people who would drop what they were doing if he made such a request and report as called, no questions asked and loaded for bear.

    Now how it would go down is something I can't fully envision. Right wing militias taking over WA DC and federal buildings? Pro Trump military/LE vs. Anti-Trump military/LE? Evangelicals vs. non-believers? Regional skirmishes? States vs. States? General looting and pillaging? Snipers on top of buildings and overpasses? Martial law? Descension into chaos until one side vanquishes the other? It makes my head spin thinking about it.


    Just curious if your departments are tuned in to this and how they would respond....
    It is not the well-fed long-haired men that I fear, but the pale and hungry-looking.

    -Julius Ceasar

  • #2
    Haha...no. My city can't even plan for more likely disaster scenarios, let alone something as catastrophic as widespread civil unrest or a full-blown civil war. As much as I dislike saying it, I suspect that most local governments would probably fly by the seats of their respective pants in such a scenario...too many people in positions of authority with their heads in the sand.
    "He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."
    -Friedrich Nietzsche

    Comment


    • #3
      My plan is to have an MOU with the Rooftop Koreans. That will ensure the safety of my AO.
      Now go home and get your shine box!

      Comment


      • Laurendale
        Laurendale commented
        Editing a comment
        Can I join in? That sounds like a pretty good idea.

    • #4
      In the event of widespread civil disorder there might be a week or two of varied levels of local and regional armed conflict. That would be followed by food shortages affecting broad areas, as deliveries would become difficult if not impossible, and that would result in food riots and armed gangs raiding neighborhoods. Also, public utilities (water, sewer, electricity, natural gas, etc) will begin to fail as maintenance needs cannot be met. Anyone should be able to foresee a rapid downward spiral that is certain to result.

      What will local and state law enforcement agencies do? Frankly, the majority of the officers have families that will require their attention and protection, and I doubt the majority will continue showing up for work, much less placing themselves in vulnerable and dangerous situations with little hope for assistance.

      I remember our department conducting Civil Defense training back in the 1970's. Scenarios ranging from floods or tornados to riots and nuclear war were discussed. More than a few officers, when told that they would be expected to stay on post while aiding evacuation and rescue efforts, replied that the cops had families also, and they had marked emergency vehicles and weapons to make sure they could get their families to safety (and the hell with the general public).

      As General Patton is quoted as saying, no plan survives the first contact with the enemy. Departments can plan as much as they wish, but until the event takes place there is no way of predicting how everyone (including the cops) will react.

      The preppers and so-called militia groups will probably hunker down in their bunkers and fortified compounds. The rest of us will be faced with mobs of scared, angry, hungry, and violent people.

      Comment


      • #5
        Originally posted by CCCSD View Post
        My plan is to have an MOU with the Rooftop Koreans. That will ensure the safety of my AO.
        “As Rooftop Koreans Knew, You Are Your Own First Responder”




        Comment


        • #6
          Update: I've checked a few FB feeds of well known Sov Cit/Militia people and organizations (like Oathkeepers, below ). While they haven't initiated any type mobilization, they are starting to beat the drum...


          Oath Keepers
          @Oathkeepers
          12h12 hours ago More




          Oath Keepers Retweeted Donald J. Trump
          Here’s the money quote from that thread. This is the truth. This is where we are. We ARE on the verge of a HOT civil war. Like in 1859. That’s where we are. And the Right has ZERO trust or respect for anything the left is doing. We see THEM as illegitimate too.@StewartRhodesOK
          It is not the well-fed long-haired men that I fear, but the pale and hungry-looking.

          -Julius Ceasar

          Comment


          • #7
            If a civil war were to take place, there would have to be a LOT more going on the country than what appears to be going on now. Also, there are a lot of people who live off of some type of welfare or pension system, and many know that may end during such a conflict or as a result afterward. Basically, don't trust the news media with facts about the true will of this country.

            Comment


            • #8
              AntiFA (Anti First Amendment) soi boi betas armed with nothing but angst, vs. Roof Koreans? That would be a short fight...
              Last edited by Aidokea; 10-01-2019, 10:06 AM.

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              • #9
                I'm in a rural part of my state that, despite usually leaning moderately Democrat, went for Trump in the last election; one of only two counties in the state that went red. Most of the people around here are pro-gun and oppose socialism and most of the attempts at curtailing free speech. There are only three municipal PDs in my county and one state university PD in my county. Only one of the towns is urban in its make up (only about 3 sq. miles but with 17,000 people and high poverty and drug problems), and the university is not particularly leftist by college standards. The rest of the county is covered by the state police and, again, it's pretty moderate, so neither heavy left or right wing activism is never really a problem for troopers now, and it would likely remain one of the safer, less active areas for law enforcement in the scenario of a civil war or anything like The Troubles of Northern Ireland.
                "If the police have to come get you, they're bringing an @$$ kicking with them!"
                -Chris Rock

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                • #10
                  I don't know if any agency is ready for an armed civil war. The National Guard is another wild card. I've known NG members who would probably be on the breakaway side of things. Unless the active duty components split, most of these groups won't be around for long. It depends on how many degrees you think things will expand. Are you talking about a couple of hill billy groups running around, or a split in which a second government declares itself the legitimate government of the US? And then you have foreign intervention possibilities of some sort.

                  Comment


                  • #11
                    Civil War 2.0: Is your agency ready
                    Why would law enforcement become involved in a war?

                    Waging war isn't illegal. In the US civilian law enforcement is not considered part of the armed forces.

                    If there is an actual war being fought civilian law enforcement would be considered civilian non-combatants under the Geneva and Hague Conventions, and their participation AS combatants would be a violation of those treaties and a war crime.

                    Now, if you want to ditch the hyperbole and discuss civil unrest short of declared war, then the answer is maybe... depending on how bad it gets. Nobody is "ready" for the worst case scenario.
                    "I am a Soldier. I fight where I'm told and I win where I fight." -- GEN George S. Patton, Jr.

                    "With a brother on my left and a sister on my right, we face…. We face what no one should face. We face, so no one else would face. We are in the face of Death." -- Holli Peet

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Are you talking about a couple of hill billy groups running around, or a split in which a second government declares itself the legitimate government of the US? And then you have foreign intervention possibilities of some sort.
                      That's a good question. One would think the government would split in half into 'blue' areas (east and west coast and big cities) vs 'red' areas (everywhere else) with conventional armies but an interesting article from 2017 predicts it would be factional, asymmetrical, and with civil authorities still intact:



                      For the United States, the shape of future homeland conflicts will be asymmetrical, distributed, and heterogeneous. A contemporary homeland conflict would likely self-compose with numerous dynamic factions organized by digital tools around ideological and affinity networks. It would likely be a patchwork of affiliated insurgency groups and their counterparts engaging in light skirmishes along the overlapping edges of their networks, mixed with occasional high-value terror attacks against soft and hard targets. Such groups are much smaller than conventional militaries and where they lack in firepower, they wield transgression. As in Charlottesville and Berkeley, the fronts are less territorial than ideological.


                      We can envision what a modern U.S. civil war might look like. More sporadic and unexpected conflicts but with fewer deaths. Factions sprouting like mushrooms, taking different forms but coordinated across invisible networks. Waves of information warfare. Chaos and an accelerated bazaar of violence with a healthy immune response from the local and national authorities. The outcome (and probable goal) would likely be a fragmentation of the republic into smaller, more manageable alliances, though it may just as easily harden an increasingly authoritarian federal government. This is essentially how Russia waged its non-linear war against Ukraine.
                      https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/10/what-a-new-u-s-civil-war-might-look-like/
                      (Btw, the author predicts 20-40% chance of civil war in five years).
                      So basically guerilla militias and proxy forces would clash with each other, and clash with local, state, and whatever federal agencies remain.
                      How would it play out in the hot zones? Like Iraq, circa 2003? Or more like Kosovo, circa 1998? Either way, thousands could be killed and millions could be displaced. Society as we've known it will be forever changed and caught in the middle, trying to keep a semblance of control will be non-aligned agencies, the PDs and SDs and State agencies, dealing with ragtag militias, mercanaries, roadside bombs, snipers, looting and robbing, and all the collateral damage to infrastructure and community.

                      God forbid this ever happens. I never thought I would be considering such a scenario. All I know is whenever a storm comes my way, the shelves at the local Piggly Wiggly empty out and whenever a civil disturbance breaks out in the U.S. (New Orleans, LA, Detroit, etc.), criminality becomes epidemic. I shudder to think how the descent into chaos would play out on a much larger scale....
                      Last edited by Ratatatat; 10-01-2019, 10:37 PM.
                      It is not the well-fed long-haired men that I fear, but the pale and hungry-looking.

                      -Julius Ceasar

                      Comment


                      • #13
                        Isn’t Civil War when two competing forms of government fight for control of the same country.

                        20-40% chance of an actual civil war, where a confederacy like government tries to secede from the union in order to form a more conservative state? A more liberal one? With whose army?

                        What you are describing is more sectarian violence than CW.

                        Other than attacks at DNC/RNC Offices or on elected officials/Gov Buildings... who knows who believes what? You can’t tell a Democrat or a Republican or a liberal or a conservative by looking at them. Dressing a certain way can give you hints but you don’t really know for sure.

                        Let’s say that a group of true believers follow #45’s next pro-CW tweet and drive to San Francisco and proceed to shoot up Pier 39 murdering dozens of people. That’s a crime. Not some opening salvo in a holy war against liberals. Anyone of these terrorists not killed by SFPD will stand trial in a court of law (and possibly the DA’s Office will actually win one!-assuming there isn’t a change of venue to SoCal). Believe or not there are more than a few Trump supports who live in SF. How many of them would be killed because they took their families to enjoy a nice foggy day at a tourist trap.

                        The more I hear CW talk, honestly the less I believe it. What’s the unifying cause? None of the democrat candidates who have a chance are going to seize guns. Impeachment? So he gets impeached, the real fireworks will be the trial in the Senate. 2/3s of the Senate must convict. Mitch has said he will honor his oath and hold a trial if the House votes to Impeach. What happens when the House AND the Senate say #45 has got to go? That’s our elected representatives. That doesn’t stir me to engage in CW. That’s the f*cking process! He can’t use the AG to go SCOTUS because that’s not how the process works. The VP takes over. Would our economy tank? Maybe but it will rebound.
                        semper destravit

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          Originally posted by RGDS View Post
                          The more I hear CW talk, honestly the less I believe it. What’s the unifying cause? None of the democrat candidates who have a chance are going to seize guns. Impeachment? So he gets impeached, the real fireworks will be the trial in the Senate. 2/3s of the Senate must convict. Mitch has said he will honor his oath and hold a trial if the House votes to Impeach. What happens when the House AND the Senate say #45 has got to go? That’s our elected representatives. That doesn’t stir me to engage in CW. That’s the f*cking process! He can’t use the AG to go SCOTUS because that’s not how the process works. The VP takes over. Would our economy tank? Maybe but it will rebound.
                          I sure hope you're right. But look at what POTUS tweeted last night:

                          As I learn more and more each day, I am coming to the conclusion that what is taking place is not an impeachment, it is a COUP, intended to take away the Power of the....

                          ....People, their VOTE, their Freedoms, their Second Amendment, Religion, Military, Border Wall, and their God-given rights as a Citizen of The United States of America!
                          To millions of his loyal adherents, this translates to:

                          1. They are coming to remove me from the office which you elected me to.
                          2. Then they are coming to get your guns.

                          Trust me when I say such rhetoric is VERY close to striking a match and lighting a powder keg. Not just in Idaho and Montana but in many places, where groups of people have been preparing for and waiting with baited breath for the day when the ram's horn is blown....
                          It is not the well-fed long-haired men that I fear, but the pale and hungry-looking.

                          -Julius Ceasar

                          Comment


                          • #15
                            I agree he appears to trying to incite violence.

                            but the process is the process. Who is they when 2/3s of a republican led Senate convict him? They would his HIS people’s representatives. They are going to pull out a ram’s horn for that? That’s pretty unhinged.

                            Impeachment is pretty toothless. Clinton had it and not much happened after his trial ended without a conviction. So #45 gets impeached. Nothing substantially changes.

                            I would imagine a Malheur style occupation of the Capitol but that doesn’t seriously impact the majority of the States, and would be over before it starts.
                            semper destravit

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