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  • Future of law enforcement

    The thread about the new generation of police officers got me thinking: What do you think is the future of law enforcement particularly on the local level?

    I'm really not sure. On one hand there is criminal justice "reform" to deal with; along with things like AI (one source I read said that it could severely cut back detectives and crime analysis work) autonomous vehicles (presumably eliminating traffic violations and collisions)and the fact that a lot of crime now is things like identity theft and "IRS" robocalls (things that can't really be handled by most local agencies)

    On the other hand there will still always be things like shootings, bar fights, lost kids and medical emergencies.

    So what do you think? Will uniformed patrol still be the entry level position in most agencies? Would it morph into more of a CSO type role, with pockets of tactical officers to deal with active shooters and weapons calls?




  • #2
    Statistically, more that 80% of LEO's in this country work for a "small" department (usually defined as having less than 50 officers, with most significantly smaller). When you work in a community of that size, people will still expect face-to-face LE, not interactions with a computer AI or automated reporting, and the budget simply doesn't exist for huge technological leaps in short periods of time. Autonomous vehicles may become MORE common, but they're going to be expensive and the transition will not be smooth when they do finally hit mainstream...the average person will be behind the wheel for the foreseeable future. As for "criminal justice reform," the pendulum swings every couple of decades....everything old is new again (I just had a couple of guys who went to a "tac school" say they were taught high-ready carry, isosceles stance, and leaning as opposed to slice-the-pie).

    In short, the vast majority of LEO's in this country will continue to do very much what they've been doing...serving their communities and enforcing the law while trying to overcome budget shortfalls and administrative hurdles. You'll see small changes like body cams and the expansion of mobile computing, and they'll be adapted to pretty easily because that's what we do. In huge departments, you may see some "pilot programs" and various experimentation, but change in LE is slow and steady.
    Last edited by Bing_Oh; 07-28-2019, 10:21 PM.
    "He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you."
    -Friedrich Nietzsche

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    • #3
      Unless technology is able to stop Domestic Violence there will always be plenty of work. Unless technology can somehow teach people to negotiate solutions rather than resorting to violence there will always be plenty of work. Unless technology can stop people getting intoxicated with various substances there will always be plenty of work.
      What we refer to as General Duties (uniformed first response police) will always have a role and plenty of work.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by vc859 View Post
        things like AI (one source I read said that it could severely cut back detectives and crime analysis work)
        I don’t see this happening in our lifetime. Sure maybe you can teach a machine to do just about anything, and we already have computers that do things it used to take an army of investigators to examine, but just like the uniformed first responders, detectives aren’t going to be replaced any time soon.

        Automated reporting and analysis of identity theft would be great! I would support it 150%. That would cut my case load by 25% easily. And it would give us more time working on cases that actually matter. Crimes against persons. And until you can teach a computer how to see, hear, smell, or feel and then tell other people about it; you’re not replacing a detective on those crimes.
        I make my living on Irish welfare.

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        • #5
          Sorry but criminals don't change ......................... burglaries will continue, sexual assaults will continue, murders will continue. Real life cops will be needed to investigate and arrest

          100 yr from now the technology will change dramatically ..............................but the JOB will be basically the same
          Since some people need to be told by notes in crayon .......Don't PM me with without prior permission. If you can't discuss the situation in the open forum ----it must not be that important

          My new word for the day is FOCUS, when someone irritates you tell them to FOCUS

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          • #6
            I often point to Hollywood as being the most prescient when it comes to the future. Take the 1982 movie Blade Runner, for example. From tracking down rogue bioengineered replicants to hovercraft police vehicles, that movie is like a crystal ball of what officers in utero will be dealing with someday...

            I hate to pee in everyone's bowl of Wheaties this fine day with a message of doom and gloom, but if I had to predict what things will be like 20, 30, 50, 100 years from now, the vision is not encouraging. Think about developing trends and changing societal dynamics and combining forces of entropy. Let's start with wealth disparity, where the richest three people in the U.S. (Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet) have more assets than the bottom 260 million. Consider that scientists are predicting the oceans will rise seven feet by 2100, displacing tens of millions of people from Texas to Tacoma into homeless hordes of nomads. Think about the widening social divisions and angry rhetoric tearing at the threads of civil discourse. Think about the 393 million guns in the U.S., making this population the most armed in the world, by far. Do I think these (and other factors I'm not going to get into, like nuclear armageddon or a hot strain of Ebola) are becoming the cake mix for a volatile and explosive 21st century? I do. And who is going to be at the spearpoint when dark winds of change become gale forces? Cops will.

            Getting back to Hollywood and what the future of LE will look like.... there's a Mel Gibson movie called Mad Max:The Road Warrior from the early 80s where Mel (before he went off the rails) plays a cop in a post-apocalypse world. The few civilized people live in an armored fortress while bands of mohawked visagoths attempt to overtake their only resource, a petroleum refinery. Lawlessness prevails and people are reduced to a dirty and dangerous existence where brutal violence would rule, if not for Mad Max. I'd say go rent it at Blockbuster but Blockbuster has gone the way of the Dodo bird thanks to Amazon, which is ironic, because you can download it from Amazon Prime for $12.99, making Jeff Bezos just a little bit wealthier....


            Image result for mad max 2
            Convictions, in the end, they can be dangerous. But a world without them is just kind of an awful, gray, amorphous mass.

            -Bono

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            • #7
              Image result for i know things and i drink
              Convictions, in the end, they can be dangerous. But a world without them is just kind of an awful, gray, amorphous mass.

              -Bono

              Comment


              • #8
                And here's a prediction: the film Minority Report is more truth than fiction when it comes to future police technology.

                Remember that scene where Tom Cruise walks into a store, goes past a scanning beam and a loudspeaker welcomes him by name? Facial recognition is pretty much at that level.

                Remember that scene where a handful of little robot spiders go running about a building, searching for him? The military has that technology now and you know how it goes- soon it will be put to civilian use.

                https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minu...-technology-2/

                I don't know about pre-cogs laying in a milk bath predicting a homicide seconds before it happens, but I'm sure scientists somewhere have a lab and right now they are beta-testing the concept....
                Last edited by Ratatatat; 07-31-2019, 12:20 PM.
                Convictions, in the end, they can be dangerous. But a world without them is just kind of an awful, gray, amorphous mass.

                -Bono

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                • #9
                  knightscope-robot-thumbnail.jpg

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                  • #10
                    I could go on about how TV and movies have already foretold what the future holds for LE. Remember Nightrider, where the Hoff talked with Kitt, the computer brain of his car? Well, it won't be long before cars are totally automated and police cars will go call to call based on GPS inputs sent by dispatchers sitting at a terminal. The officers wont touch the steering wheel and other cars on the road will be diverted away by incoming data sent by the responding car to get out of the way. This isn't decades away- it's years away.

                    Same goes for the blasters from Star Wars. Plasmoid weapon technology continues to evolve from fantasy to reality. Someday, lead bullets will be as outdated as pay phones and VCRs. No more spare magazines or reloads; these suckers will have powerful batteries that can take on entire platoons of stormtroopers.

                    And just recently, scientists built a gizmo called BrainEx which rejuvenated a pig brain five hours after death (google it and you'll read how this technology is shaking medical bioethics to the core, because it has the potential to re-define death). But- once the genie is out of the bottle, it can't be put back. So, one day, Robocop may actually become an official crime fighter, not just a statue in Detroit...

                    Related image


                    Convictions, in the end, they can be dangerous. But a world without them is just kind of an awful, gray, amorphous mass.

                    -Bono

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                    • #11
                      Day to day policing with look like CSOs had a kid with City Code Enforcement. No firearms, but Tasers and batons and pepper spray. They will not handle violent in progress crimes due to society’s anti violence attitudes. No car stop, no ped stops. Just calls for service, citations and cold paper.

                      Any semblance of what looks like police work today will be accomplished by investigators. Cases will be built and warrants issued. Then and only then does an armed tactical unit serve the warrant.

                      Like “Demolition Man” without the joy joy feelings of actually being a cop!
                      semper destravit

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                      • #12
                        Day to day policing will look like CSOs had a kid with City Code Enforcement. No firearms, but Tasers and batons and pepper spray. They will not handle violent in progress crimes due to society’s anti violence attitudes. No car stop, no ped stops. Just calls for service, citations and cold paper.

                        That's very similar to the Chengguan in China, AKA the Urban Administrative and Law Enforcement Bureau. Mostly used to address petty crime like vagrancy and panhandling and be official greeters. And I think you're right about it gaining a foot hold here- Seattle PD recently announced a 12 person unit along those lines...

                        https://q13fox.com/2019/06/26/seattl...vice-officers/
                        Convictions, in the end, they can be dangerous. But a world without them is just kind of an awful, gray, amorphous mass.

                        -Bono

                        Comment

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