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  • Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost

    Wait, what? I thought the Dems, including Obama, said we had lost!? What? You mean to tell me the things I saw with my own eyes wasn't a farce? It wasn't all a lie by the evil Bush admin????? What?

    And I'm sorry, but it seemed impossible only to the Dems, the MSM, and the sheep that follow their everyword...



    Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost
    Story Here

    By ROBERT BURNS and ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writers
    Sat Jul 26, 7:08 PM ET

    BAGHDAD - The United States is now winning the war that two years ago seemed lost. Limited, sometimes sharp fighting and periodic terrorist bombings in Iraq are likely to continue, possibly for years. But the Iraqi government and the U.S. now are able to shift focus from mainly combat to mainly building the fragile beginnings of peace — a transition that many found almost unthinkable as recently as one year ago.

    Despite the occasional bursts of violence, Iraq has reached the point where the insurgents, who once controlled whole cities, no longer have the clout to threaten the viability of the central government.

    That does not mean the war has ended or that U.S. troops have no role in Iraq. It means the combat phase finally is ending, years past the time when President Bush optimistically declared it had. The new phase focuses on training the Iraqi army and police, restraining the flow of illicit weaponry from Iran, supporting closer links between Baghdad and local governments, pushing the integration of former insurgents into legitimate government jobs and assisting in rebuilding the economy.

    Scattered battles go on, especially against al-Qaida holdouts north of Baghdad. But organized resistance, with the steady drumbeat of bombings, kidnappings, assassinations and ambushes that once rocked the capital daily, has all but ceased.

    This amounts to more than a lull in the violence. It reflects a fundamental shift in the outlook for the Sunni minority, which held power under Saddam Hussein. They launched the insurgency five years ago. They now are either sidelined or have switched sides to cooperate with the Americans in return for money and political support.

    Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told The Associated Press this past week there are early indications that senior leaders of al-Qaida may be considering shifting their main focus from Iraq to the war in Afghanistan.

    Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, told the AP on Thursday that the insurgency as a whole has withered to the point where it is no longer a threat to Iraq's future.

    "Very clearly, the insurgency is in no position to overthrow the government or, really, even to challenge it," Crocker said. "It's actually almost in no position to try to confront it. By and large, what's left of the insurgency is just trying to hang on."

    Shiite militias, notably the Mahdi Army of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, have lost their power bases in Baghdad, Basra and other major cities. An important step was the routing of Shiite extremists in the Sadr City slums of eastern Baghdad this spring — now a quiet though not fully secure district.

    Al-Sadr and top lieutenants are now in Iran. Still talking of a comeback, they are facing major obstacles, including a loss of support among a Shiite population weary of war and no longer as terrified of Sunni extremists as they were two years ago.

    Despite the favorable signs, U.S. commanders are leery of proclaiming victory or promising that the calm will last.

    The premature declaration by the Bush administration of "Mission Accomplished" in May 2003 convinced commanders that the best public relations strategy is to promise little, and couple all good news with the warning that "security is fragile" and that the improvements, while encouraging, are "not irreversible."

    Iraq still faces a mountain of problems: sectarian rivalries, power struggles within the Sunni and Shiite communities, Kurdish-Arab tensions, corruption. Any one of those could rekindle widespread fighting.

    But the underlying dynamics in Iraqi society that blew up the U.S. military's hopes for an early exit, shortly after the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, have changed in important ways in recent months.

    Systematic sectarian killings have all but ended in the capital, in large part because of tight security and a strategy of walling off neighborhoods purged of minorities in 2006.

    That has helped establish a sense of normalcy in the streets of the capital. People are expressing a new confidence in their own security forces, which in turn are exhibiting a newfound assertiveness with the insurgency largely in retreat.

    Statistics show violence at a four-year low. The monthly American death toll appears to be at its lowest of the war — four killed in action so far this month as of Friday, compared with 66 in July a year ago. From a daily average of 160 insurgent attacks in July 2007, the average has plummeted to about two dozen a day this month. On Wednesday the nationwide total was 13.

    Beyond that, there is something in the air in Iraq this summer.

    In Baghdad, parks are filled every weekend with families playing and picnicking with their children. That was unthinkable only a year ago, when the first, barely visible signs of a turnaround emerged.

    Now a moment has arrived for the Iraqis to try to take those positive threads and weave them into a lasting stability.

    The questions facing both Americans and Iraqis are: What kinds of help will the country need from the U.S. military, and for how long? The questions will take on greater importance as the U.S. presidential election nears, with one candidate pledging a troop withdrawal and the other insisting on staying.

    Iraqi authorities have grown dependent on the U.S. military after more than five years of war. While they are aiming for full sovereignty with no foreign troops on their soil, they do not want to rush. In a similar sense, the Americans fear that after losing more than 4,100 troops, the sacrifice could be squandered.

    U.S. commanders say a substantial American military presence will be needed beyond 2009. But judging from the security gains that have been sustained over the first half of this year — as the Pentagon withdrew five Army brigades sent as reinforcements in 2007 — the remaining troops could be used as peacekeepers more than combatants.

    As a measure of the transitioning U.S. role, Maj. Gen. Jeffery Hammond says that when he took command of American forces in the Baghdad area about seven months ago he was spending 80 percent of his time working on combat-related matters and about 20 percent on what the military calls "nonkinetic" issues, such as supporting the development of Iraqi government institutions and humanitarian aid.

    Now Hammond estimates those percentage have been almost reversed. For several hours one recent day, for example, Hammond consulted on water projects with a Sunni sheik in the Radwaniyah area of southwest Baghdad, then spent time with an Iraqi physician/entrepreneur in the Dora district of southern Baghdad — an area, now calm, that in early 2007 was one of the capital's most violent zones.

    "We're getting close to something that looks like an end to mass violence in Iraq," says Stephen Biddle, an analyst at the Council of Foreign Relations who has advised Petraeus on war strategy. Biddle is not ready to say it's over, but he sees the U.S. mission shifting from fighting the insurgents to keeping the peace.

    Although Sunni and Shiite extremists are still around, they have surrendered the initiative and have lost the support of many ordinary Iraqis. That can be traced to an altered U.S. approach to countering the insurgency — a Petraeus-driven move to take more U.S. troops off their big bases and put them in Baghdad neighborhoods where they mixed with ordinary Iraqis and built a new level of trust.

    Army Col. Tom James, a brigade commander who is on his third combat tour in Iraq, explains the new calm this way:

    "We've put out the forest fire. Now we're dealing with pop-up fires."

    It's not the end of fighting. It looks like the beginning of a perilous peace.

    Maj. Gen. Ali Hadi Hussein al-Yaseri, the chief of patrol police in the capital, sees the changes.

    "Even eight months ago, Baghdad was not today's Baghdad," he says.

    ___

    EDITOR'S NOTE — Robert Burns is AP's chief military reporter, and Robert Reid is AP's chief of bureau in Baghdad. Reid has covered the war from his post in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in March 2003. Burns, based in Washington, has made 21 reporting trips to Iraq; on his latest during July, Burns spent nearly three weeks in central and northern Iraq, observing military operations and interviewing both U.S. and Iraqi officers.
    “The man in black fled across the desert, and the gunslinger followed."

    "You go for a man hard enough and fast enough, he don't have time to think about how many's with him; he thinks about himself, and how he might get clear of that wrath that's about to set down on him."

  • #2
    I hope this remains the case. I supported the surge and believed it to be, if not the cure to the insurgency, but at least relief to the soldiers stationed there. If we succeed, not only is this affirmation of the architects of this conflict but of the soldiers who have sacrifised (sp?) so much in this war.

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    • #3
      I just hope its really is us winning and not just a lay low tactic. If I could see into the future it would help but they (insurgents, Iran, Syria) may be banking on other things more so than Iraq. Or that AQ just switched its focus to Afghanistan. I just hope our Generals and such have learned their lesson from Afghan the first time and not pull all out of one to go to the other. It will just result in an evil pendulum effect. You snuff out a rat hole, they just go to another.
      "Against the machinations of your enemies you can take defense, but against the stupidity of fools, the very gods themselves fight in vain" ~ Johann C.F. Von Schiller


      "Man once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against absurdities the most monstrous, and like a ship without rudder, is the sport of every wind. With such persons, gullibility, which they call faith, takes the helm from the hand of reason, and the mind becomes a wreck."
      --Thomas Jefferson

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      • #4
        Two years ago seemed lost? If I recall, I saw videos that said when they found Saddam they won, now they're essentially cleaning up and routing out the bugs.

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        • #5
          Yep, we're winning. Nice way to shift our troops to Afghanistan/Pakistan with new major military operations developing.

          Comment


          • #6
            It's more evidence that the press is in the tank for the Democrats, only months ago they called it a losing battle, civil war, wasted effort, blah, blah, blah. An unbiased media would call them to task on it.

            "Yep, we're winning. Nice way to shift our troops to Afghanistan/Pakistan with new major military operations developing."

            Nice way to shift the argument.

            Comment


            • #7
              The lay low tactic doesn't work in an insurgency. When you're fighting a stronger force, you don't want to lay low and hope they forget about you. Because they won't but the PEOPLE will.... you lose your "support" from the locals, you lose your war.
              “The man in black fled across the desert, and the gunslinger followed."

              "You go for a man hard enough and fast enough, he don't have time to think about how many's with him; he thinks about himself, and how he might get clear of that wrath that's about to set down on him."

              Comment


              • #8
                Yes, victory will be official once the MASSIVE embassy is finally completed over there.

                War on terrorism=endless, impossible to win. Some guy from Germany throws a rock at an American 200 years from now, then the war still isn't over.
                When talking to a fool, be sure he isn't doing the same.

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                • #9
                  I do not think "winning" in Iraq has a clear definition. Obviously, the situation is much better than it was a year ago.
                  Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley
                  Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. -- Albert Einstein

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by justhomp View Post
                    The lay low tactic doesn't work in an insurgency. When you're fighting a stronger force, you don't want to lay low and hope they forget about you. Because they won't but the PEOPLE will.... you lose your "support" from the locals, you lose your war.
                    Seemed to have worked fine in Afghanistan and Mogadishu.
                    "Against the machinations of your enemies you can take defense, but against the stupidity of fools, the very gods themselves fight in vain" ~ Johann C.F. Von Schiller


                    "Man once surrendering his reason, has no remaining guard against absurdities the most monstrous, and like a ship without rudder, is the sport of every wind. With such persons, gullibility, which they call faith, takes the helm from the hand of reason, and the mind becomes a wreck."
                    --Thomas Jefferson

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by GrndPnd0311 View Post
                      Seemed to have worked fine in Afghanistan and Mogadishu.
                      I. Afghanistan is not over yet.

                      II. Mogadishu
                      a. Clinton gave up too quickly
                      b. the "insurgents" WERE the locals, which is not the case in Iraq.
                      "First of all, then we have to say the American public overwhelmingly voted for socialism when they elected President Obama." - Al Sharpton, March 21, 2010

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                      • #12
                        ^ damn, beat me too it.

                        In the conflict with the soviets, the Afghani fighters weren't laying low. They were taking to the soviets every chance they got. Guerilla tactics (hit and run) is not laying low.

                        This time around in Afghanistan, the Taliban and AQ are simply using the winter months to train and resupply, considering we can't really get to them in the mountains during the winter.

                        As far as Somalia... I don't recall ever reading of the Somali's "laying low"... let alone it being an insurgency...
                        “The man in black fled across the desert, and the gunslinger followed."

                        "You go for a man hard enough and fast enough, he don't have time to think about how many's with him; he thinks about himself, and how he might get clear of that wrath that's about to set down on him."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by JasperST4 View Post
                          It's more evidence that the press is in the tank for the Democrats, only months ago they called it a losing battle, civil war, wasted effort, blah, blah, blah. An unbiased media would call them to task on it.

                          "Yep, we're winning. Nice way to shift our troops to Afghanistan/Pakistan with new major military operations developing."

                          Nice way to shift the argument.
                          Quote from Jasper's Article;
                          '...That does not mean the war has ended or that U.S. troops have no role in Iraq. It means the combat phase finally is ending, years past the time when President Bush optimistically declared it had. The new phase focuses on training the Iraqi army and police, restraining the flow of illicit weaponry from Iran, supporting closer links between Baghdad and local governments, pushing the integration of former insurgents into legitimate government jobs and assisting in rebuilding the economy...'
                          You're article clearly states the combat phase is ending; the situation in Pakistan is becoming more violent as we've read from other threads, along with the aggressiveness of the Taliban; the legitimate government clearly stated it wants US forces out. Can we put two + two and get four? The shift of military units to the Pakistan/Afghanistan region is a given.

                          You'll never understand the 'big picture' as long as you dwell on one-upmanship to my comments. Relax. I have no axe to grind with you.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by justhomp View Post
                            This time around in Afghanistan, the Taliban and AQ are simply using the winter months to train and resupply, considering we can't really get to them in the mountains during the winter.
                            We'll just have to wait for global warming to take care of it.
                            Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. -- Aldous Huxley
                            Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity. -- Albert Einstein

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by DAL View Post
                              We'll just have to wait for global warming to take care of it.
                              There it is. A solid answer.

                              And B Hussein Obama (not Osama) will lead us to the warmth.

                              God, I do love this country so. Where even a community organzier with 6 months of senate experience before his campaign began, can run for Leader of the Free World and claim he was right, the surge was wrong, it's all working, but he was right all along.

                              And the sheep eat it up as gospel.

                              God Bless America.
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