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  • What are we meaning when we mean "Use"?

    Are you talking about shots being fired? Shots being fired and someone reporting it?

    Someone putting a hand on a gun in a pocket during a situation that has some real potential to turn bad, then handing the situation firmly but politely and getting away without any shots fired or anyone ever seeing the weapon?

    I hate to get all Clinton, but lets define "use" before we get any further into discussing it.

    Comment


    • Kleck, I believe included "use" to be any use, up to and including shooting at the suspect. So if one were to threaten with the gun that would be included in his definition of "use."
      "Respect for religion must be reestablished. Public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of public officials must be curtailed. Assistance to foreign lands must be stopped or we shall bankrupt ourselves. The people should be forced to work and not depend on government for subsistence." - Cicero, 60 B.C.

      For California police academy notes go to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CABasicPolice/

      Comment


      • Originally posted by NumbersGuy
        Okay, here it goes.

        Kleck is wrong because he states the impossible:

        297,826,299=the number of people in the united states, according to the 2000 Census

        25=percentage of adults that own a gun.

        297,826,299*.25

        74,556,574=number of people who could possibly use a gun in self-defense.

        2.5 million=Kleck's estimated number of self defense gun uses.

        29.78=percent of gunowners per year that would have to use their gun in self defense to make Kleck's number truthful.

        Hemenway is wrong because the NCVS is inaccurate, therefore, both sides are wrong.

        -Regards, Ryan
        First, let's use the 1990 census which is closer to the 1993 Kleck survey.

        That is 248,709,873

        Second, the number of people who own guns is meaningless and unknown. The best estimates conclude that 35-40% of households have guns in them that could be used for self-defense purposes.

        Third, Kleck
        Last edited by Phoenix; 12-07-2005, 01:43 PM.
        Phoenix

        "He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from opposition; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." ~Thomas Paine

        Comment


        • I apologize, in rereading my post, I realized I had made a poor calculation. I will shortly correct it.

          -Regards, Ryan

          Comment


          • [QUOTE=Phoenix]First, let's use the 1990 census which is closer to the 1993 Kleck survey.

            That is 248,709,873

            Second, the number of people who own guns is meaningless and unknown. The best estimates conclude that 35-40% of households have guns in them that could be used for self-defense purposes.

            Please explain how it is meaningless. I am attempting to determine how many people could have used a weapon in self defense, not a household.

            Again, i apologize for the earlier error.

            -Regards, Ryan

            Comment


            • Could someone please supply me with a breakdown of the uses claimed in Kleck's study by type of crime? Thanks

              -Regards, Ryan

              Comment


              • [QUOTE=NumbersGuy]
                Originally posted by Phoenix
                First, let's use the 1990 census which is closer to the 1993 Kleck survey.

                That is 248,709,873

                Second, the number of people who own guns is meaningless and unknown. The best estimates conclude that 35-40% of households have guns in them that could be used for self-defense purposes.

                Please explain how it is meaningless. I am attempting to determine how many people could have used a weapon in self defense, not a household.

                Again, i apologize for the earlier error.

                -Regards, Ryan
                If one person in a household owns a gun, theoretically, every person in that household has access to that gun for self-defense purposes.

                Using your analysis, only 25% of the people in my home would be able to use a gun in self-defence since I am the only gun owner. Yet if you break into my home in the middle of the night and I am not home you are just as likely to face a gun in the hands of my wife, my 16 yr old son, or my 20 yr old daughter.
                Phoenix

                "He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from opposition; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." ~Thomas Paine

                Comment


                • I just realized an error in my calculations (I'm not a statistician, so forgive me.) I mixed the households and population numbers.

                  In 1990 there were 92 million households in the U.S.

                  Between 32 million and 38 million of those households had guns in them.

                  Even if we assume the worst case scenario with an equal distribution of one DGU per household (which all known surveys refute,) the correct number would be:

                  Approximately 5.98% - 7.77% of all households in the U.S. experienced a DGU in 1993 using Klecks numbers.

                  Again, that does not appear unreasonable.
                  Phoenix

                  "He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from opposition; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." ~Thomas Paine

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Mitchell_in_CT
                    Its not that someone's life was saved by a gun...its WHO's life was saved.

                    A little (lot...) of elitism is going around when they look at who would have been saved by the absence of a gun and who would have benifited from the presence of a gun.

                    To address your second point, most people considered "anti-gunners" are not, in fact, anti-gun at all.

                    Many of they have firearms, carry pistols for personal protection and shoot quite a lot.

                    However...they are special because they are educated/WASP/in a specific profession (Not LE, Doctors, Lawyers, Banking...)/not "one of those people" ... and are therefore "OK" to have a gun.

                    Its not that they hate weapons. Its not that they don't think guns can be benifical.

                    Its that they don't want "You", whoever "You" is, to have one because "You" aren't one of the real people who matter.

                    You know, the important people...like the guy who says "Do you know who I am?" when you pull him over.

                    He may be a member of the Brady Group...but I'll bet he had a Bill Wilson officer's length .45 under his suit and a Carry permit...

                    After all...he matters.

                    I am a little confused by your post. Let me think out loud here a moment and you can let me know if I get it right.


                    First, the 'special' people do not include average citizens, doctors, lawyers, bankers, or even law enforcement. These 'special' people are the ones who cut in front of you in traffic or at the store because their time is always more important than your time. Another example might be the guy in school who always had to be the quarterback playing football because he thought he was the only one who could throw the ball or make decisions.

                    The 'special' people do not want to ban guns...they only want to ban YOUR guns as long as they can still have theirs.

                    The 'special' people determin the value of a life saved by the implimentation of a gun to be dependant on who (and if they were a 'special' person too), was saved?

                    If I understand you correctly, I think I agree for the most part.
                    An impressionable child in a tumultuous world, and they say I'm at a difficult stage... --Meat Loaf

                    Professional Stupidity Recognition Technician

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by NumbersGuy
                      If Kleck's statistic were correct, it would mean that about three percent of all gun owners in a year have used their weapons in self defense.
                      -Regards, Ryan

                      <statistics off>

                      Ryan...assume that the 3% number is relatively accurate for our purposes here. How many people would that be?

                      .....and refresh my memory....don't the anti-gun crowd normally tow the line that "If we save ONLY ONE LIFE it will all be worth it" (meaning the trampling on the rights of the rest of us)

                      .....so, from a common sense approach....wouldn't it be 'worth' supporting MORE people having guns so that a LARGER percentage would be in the position to defend themselves?

                      <statistics back on>
                      An impressionable child in a tumultuous world, and they say I'm at a difficult stage... --Meat Loaf

                      Professional Stupidity Recognition Technician

                      Comment


                      • [QUOTE=Phoenix]
                        Originally posted by NumbersGuy

                        If one person in a household owns a gun, theoretically, every person in that household has access to that gun for self-defense purposes.

                        Using your analysis, only 25% of the people in my home would be able to use a gun in self-defence since I am the only gun owner. Yet if you break into my home in the middle of the night and I am not home you are just as likely to face a gun in the hands of my wife, my 16 yr old son, or my 20 yr old daughter.
                        How many people live alone versus with a family? Three percent of people using a firearm in self defense is 3 out of 100, obviously. This is highly unlikely.

                        -Regards, Ryan

                        Comment


                        • [QUOTE=NumbersGuy]
                          Originally posted by Phoenix

                          How many people live alone versus with a family? Three percent of people using a firearm in self defense is 3 out of 100, obviously. This is highly unlikely.

                          -Regards, Ryan

                          OK, you win, Klecks numbers are wrong. What does that prove? What does that imply? What course of action should be taken as a result of the fact that only 108,000 people (NCVS number) rather than 2.5 million people (Klecks number) use guns in self-defense each year? Should we ban guns because they are statistically insignificant? What point are you really trying to make here Ryan?

                          If your only argument is that Klecks numbers are too high then fine, I'll accept that. I don't care if they are off by a factor of ten and I don't believe most other people do either. It carries no weight in an authentic debate about our Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.

                          So, let's get on with the real reason you decided to come onto this forum in defense of your "cousin" Tinkertoy. What are you attempting to prove?
                          Phoenix

                          "He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from opposition; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." ~Thomas Paine

                          Comment


                          • Phoenix, he(numbers) is a troll, simple as that. It was quite apparent if you read the initial writing of his "poll" on gun control. I have a hard time even believing he is even a statician because he can't even do simple math.
                            "Respect for religion must be reestablished. Public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of public officials must be curtailed. Assistance to foreign lands must be stopped or we shall bankrupt ourselves. The people should be forced to work and not depend on government for subsistence." - Cicero, 60 B.C.

                            For California police academy notes go to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CABasicPolice/

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by pkagel
                              Phoenix, he(numbers) is a troll, simple as that. It was quite apparent if you read the initial writing of his "poll" on gun control. I have a hard time even believing he is even a statician because he can't even do simple math.

                              I know. Did you read my response to his poll questions?
                              Phoenix

                              "He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from opposition; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." ~Thomas Paine

                              Comment


                              • Yea, you have him nailed.

                                Originally posted by Phoenix
                                I know. Did you read my response to his poll questions?
                                "Respect for religion must be reestablished. Public debt should be reduced. The arrogance of public officials must be curtailed. Assistance to foreign lands must be stopped or we shall bankrupt ourselves. The people should be forced to work and not depend on government for subsistence." - Cicero, 60 B.C.

                                For California police academy notes go to http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CABasicPolice/

                                Comment

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