Kazakhstan Mulls Exporting Oil Thru Russia

[Stormy]

The other casualties of the Georgian Army defeat is just now beginning to appear. First with Georgia. Now it's Kazakhstan.



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August 21, 2008, 8:37 am
Oil Casualties: Kazakhs Mull Exporting Through Russia
Posted by Keith Johnson

Well that didn’t take long. Russia’s military incursion into Georgia, home to a key oil and gas pipeline, stoked fears that the West would have a harder time convincing Central Asian countries to defy Russia and take part in future pipeline projects that would reduce dependence on Russia. Now, some countries seem to be bailing out of the existing ones.

Kazakhstan is considering diverting its oil exports away from the BTC pipeline that runs through Georgia, and using Russia instead. The reason? “Security concerns,” brought about by Russian military intervention. From Turkey’s Hurriyet:

Kazakhstan is considering pumping its oil through Russia as an alternative to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline due to increased security concerns over the clashes in the Caucasus, a Turkish daily reported on Thursday. A high level Kazakh official told Turkish business daily Referans that question marks now hang over the security of the BTC pipeline. “We could reconsider our decisions on sending Kazakh oil to the world market. Changing the (export) route is in our agenda now,” the official was quoted as saying by Referans.

Kazakhstan is considering pumping its oil through Russia as an alternative to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline due to increased security concerns over the clashes in the Caucasus, a Turkish daily reported on Thursday. A high level Kazakh official told Turkish business daily Referans that question marks now hang over the security of the BTC pipeline. “We could reconsider our decisions on sending Kazakh oil to the world market. Changing the (export) route is in our agenda now,” the official was quoted as saying by Referans.

http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalca...hrough-russia/

[JTShooter]

Sigh, saw this one coming.

The smaller countries will fall one by one now that they've seen our inability to protect one of our own. They will "seek protection" (Russian mob ha) and quickly fall back into the mold. Russia will once again begin to appear like the old maps we used to have....

The time of talking is over.

[Stormy]

Sigh, saw this one coming.

The smaller countries will fall one by one now that they've seen our inability to protect one of our own. They will "seek protection" (Russian mob ha) and quickly fall back into the mold. Russia will once again begin to appear like the old maps we used to have....

The time of talking is over.

I'm waiting for the confrontation with Ukraine. It's not a 'little bittly' country, considering it was the 3rd most powerful country at one point.

Since the Georgia event, Ukraine and Russia have had differences in interpretation of Russia's Black Sea Fleet at Savastopol, located in Crimea nearer Eastern Ukraine.

Western Ukraine leans towards the US, as opposed to Eastern Ukraine, which is more populated and leans towards Russia. They are seperated by the Carpathian Mts.

[Southflaguy]

Are we in the brink of world war 3?...

[Stormy]

Are we in the brink of world war 3?...

In my opinion, we are dangerously close.

[DAL]

I still think that Georgia behaved very foolishly. It should have known that the US would not support its attack on the separatists.

South Ossetia is a province that once was part of Russia and that was given to Georgia before the demise of the USSR. The majority of residents are not ethnic Georgians. So I question whether Georgia should have attacked the separatist majority who prefer to have autonomy or be part of Russia.

Russia's punishment has come from foreign investors pulling out of Russia.

[Stormy]

I still think that Georgia behaved very foolishly. It should have known that the US would not support its attack on the separatists.

South Ossetia is a province that once was part of Russia and that was given to Georgia before the demise of the USSR. The majority of residents are not ethnic Georgians. So I question whether Georgia should have attacked the separatist majority who prefer to have autonomy or be part of Russia.

Russia's punishment has come from foreign investors pulling out of Russia.

Only time will tell whether Russia will suffer from the investor's pullout. With Russia's natural resources, and it's new-found investors who lean against the US, I doubt it.

[DAL]

Investors Turn On Russia

From Forbes.com

LONDON - When Russian president Dmitri Medvedev announced an end to military operations in Georgia earlier this month, it seemed that the economic risk was all on Georgia's side. The small country would now have to spend money repairing the damage wrought by Russian troops, and would also have trouble keeping foreign investors on board after Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili's proven willingness to take extraordinary--perhaps even foolish--military risks against his mighty Russian neighbor.

But even though the fight for the Georgian breakaway republic of South Ossetia was over in a matter of days, it has had a long tail. Russia's leading stocks have failed to return to pre-conflict levels, and on Friday the benchmark RTS index fell 1.2% at the end of trading, to 1,701.61 points. On Thursday, the Russian central bank revealed it had lost $16.4 billion in foreign reserves last week, with the total falling to $581.1 billion.

Russia has tried to present itself as a more business-friendly prospect this year, particularly with the arrival of Medvedev in the Kremlin; his reported declarations have included fretting over relations with the European Union as a trading partner in the wake of the Georgian conflict, as well as asking Russian authorities to "stop causing nightmares" for businesses.

But this has not been enough to gloss over the fact that former president and current prime minister Vladimir Putin is still clearly in control, particularly his desire to build a tougher, prouder Russia in the wake of the disastrous economic policies of the 1990s. Hence the Russian courts' decision to revoke Mikhail Khodorkovsky's parole on Friday; although the official reason given was the fallen oligarch's refusal to take part in training such as sewing while in prison, it is clear that keeping him behind bars serves as a clear warning to businesses who might otherwise choose to cross the Kremlin.

Two other high-profile cases this year have also weighed on investor sentiment in Russia. First up was the Russian joint venture of BP (nyse: BP - news - people ), TNK-BP, which showed Russia to be just as protective of its energy assets as it was when Putin first came to powe. After pressure from the joint venture's Russian shareholders, and allegations of improper visa applications from Russian inspectors, TNK-BP chief executive Robert Dudley fled the country at the end of July. (See "Russia's $21 Compromise.")

Then there is the curious story of mining company Mechel (nyse: MTL - news - people ), which was fined $32.2 million earlier this week and told to reduce coal prices by 15.0% from the start of September. Putin's harsh words against the company's allegedly high prices sent shares of the firm plummeting last month, and proved that the government was still prepared to take rather unorthodox measures to keep businesses in line. (See "Mechel Gets A Breather.")

[JTShooter]

Are we in the brink of world war 3?...

Yes, we are.

and much like WWII, we're gonna sit by and be dragged into it because we waited too long to react.....

[Taylor13]

Does this mean I get to use an AR-15?

[Stormy]

Activists in Ukraine's Crimea ask Russia to reclaim territory
16:24 | 22/ 08/ 2008



SIMFEROPOL, August 22 (RIA Novosti) - About 50 protesters gathered in the Crimean capital of Simferopol on Friday, urging Russia to pull out of a friendship agreement with Ukraine and to make a territorial claim on the peninsula.

The organizer of the rally, Valery Podyachy, told the gathering: "We ask Russia to tear up the agreement [on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership with Ukraine] and to file territorial claims to Ukraine."

The Crimea, which has a predominantly Russian-speaking population, has been the focus of frequent disputes between the Russian and Ukrainian leaderships, over the Russian Black Sea Fleet's lease of the soviet-era Sevastopol naval base.

During the recent conflict between Russia and Georgia that followed Tbilisi's August 8 offensive in breakaway South Ossetia, Ukraine threatened to bar entry to Russian Black Sea fleet vessels that had been deployed near Georgia's coast.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov signed instructions on Thursday to implement an earlier presidential decree complicating the rules of deployment for the Black Sea Fleet.

Podyachy, who heads the Sevastopol-Crimea-Russia Popular Front, said: "While Russia sent aid to flood-hit Ukrainian regions, Ukraine failed to help Russia to force Georgia to peace, and took an openly hostile stance."

Ukraine supplied weaponry to President Mikheil Saakashvili's regime that was used to kill Russian peacekeepers, he said.

"Ukraine has proved by its policies that it is not a friend but an enemy to Russia," Podyachy said.

Former Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, who grew up in Ukraine, made the Crimean Peninsula - a territory of 26,100 sq km - part of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954. The peninsula was until then a part of the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic.

Since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union, the Crimea has unsuccessfully sought independence from Ukraine. A 1994 referendum in the Crimea supported demands for a broader autonomy and closer links with Russia.

Relations between Russia and Ukraine have deteriorated recently following Kiev's NATO membership bid and its demand that Russia's Black Sea Fleet withdraw from its naval base in Sevastopol.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080822/116217601.html

[Stormy]

It has begun. Slowly, the Bear will reclaim all of the previous Soviet satellite countries under the Moscow umbrella.

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Ukraine leaders divided over Russian threat

Ukraine's prime minister has sharply criticised the country's president for restoring displays of military hardware to Sunday's independence day parade amid fears of provoking Russia.



By Damien McElroy in Kiev
Last Updated: 11:10PM BST 21 Aug 2008

Battle lines between the former political allies are hardening at a treacherous juncture in the country's history.

As President Victor Yushchenko prepares to fight presidential elections in 2010, Yulia Timoshenko has issued what amounts to a broad scale challenge to her partner in Ukraine's 2004 Orange Revolution.

Grigory Nemyria, vice-prime minister and Miss Timoshenko's closest advisor, told The Daily Telegraph that differences over the parade formed part of a much wider divergence between the two leaders. "The prime minister thinks the military parade is inappropriate because of the cost at a time when Ukraine has to cope with severe flooding but also because this flexing of muscles is a provocation," he said.

Preparations for the parade have given Kiev the feel of a city preparing for occupation. Loud cannon fire has echoed through the canyon-like Soviet-era boulevards during the evening rush hour this week. Newspapers are filled with pictures of tanks. To crown the sense of siege, jets on a fly-past flew fast and low over the city.

Residents were shocked by the sudden militarisation of the Ukrainian capital, which has struggled hard to present a modern image. "This is the first time we've seen this in seven years," said Oleg Pashchenko, a newspaper vendor. "Why now and for what? The president must be crazy to think he is scaring the Russians."

In the wake of Russia's assault on Georgia, pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to row back from pro-western policies has escalated. While President Yushchenko resisted with measures that directly targeted Russian interests, the prime minister has shown increasing disquiet.

Mr Nemyria hinted that the prime minister was prepared to put a strategic change of direction before the electorate, a development that would mean breaking a pledge not to run.

"Foreign and security policy has not before been an issue in Ukrainian elections," he said. "But in the just beginning presidential elections it will be and it will be up to each party to explain their approach in the manifestos."

Miss Timoshenko has distanced herself from the president's determined pursuit of Nato membership. Mr Nemyria said the collapse of Georgia's army proved that upgrading the military of aspiring allies was unequal to the task of preserving peace next to Russia.

"Purely security based arrangements are not enough," he said. "We need a much more ambitious set of policies. The EU cannot remain on the sidelines. We need to demand that you the countries of Western Europe take a much more proactive approach to stability, particularly in regard to frozen conflicts."

Miss Timoshenko has also been critical of a presidential decree restricting the movements of Russia's Ukraine-based Black Sea fleet in its waters.

"This unilateralism on both sides causes problems," said Mr Nemyria. "The president took unilateral action in his announcement. There must be a mechanism to cover this issue but if it's not workable and not enforceable, it could act as a pretext for the other side."

Russia's intimate relationship with Ukraine stretches beyond the origins of its empire. The two nations share an ethnic Slavic make-up and the Orthodox religion. Ukraine has successfully steered west since 2004 while Russia under Vladimir Putin has become steadily more autocratic, both at home and abroad.

With at least 17 per cent of Ukrainians claiming Russian nationality on census forms, a ready constituency for Moscow lives in Ukraine. If inter-ethnic frictions build, Russia would have a reason to intervene as it did in Georgian.

So far Ukraine has avoided ethnic clashes. Mr Nemyria, a native Russian-speaker, claims that the handling of communal tensions is one of the great achievements of its independence.

However, there are signs that distrust is mounting. Ukrainians increasingly insist on speaking the national language, a development that has left many Russians excluded from both national affairs and small-scale social events.

At a riverside disco in Kiev, Tatania Lytvyn, a 32-year-old IT consultant, visiting from the Russophone city of Donetsk, partied inconspicuously yesterday in a showcase venue for Kiev's newly prosperous elite. But during a prize giving announcement in Ukrainian, she was suddenly dismayed.

"It's become really hard for us. Everything is pressure to use Ukrainian and people get really mad if we don't," she said. "But who cares about Ukrainian? Who learns that language?

"Russian is known all over the word. It's disgusting but what can we do."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...an-threat.html